Druckenmiller made waves a few days ago when he dropped some verbal bombs in an interview. It wasn’t a one-off. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1399012533701386241.html
0/ Druckenmiller has now had a similar interviews for CNBC, USC, & The Hustle w/ their own twist.
Tech Bubble vs. Today- “Today, you have something similar & something different. Monetary policy is absolutely insane. We had no QE back then. And our rates weren’t 0%. They were
1/ 4% or 5% when they probably should have been 6% or 7%. No comparison.
So we have an asset bubble. Now that’s not just in tech stocks, it’s in everything. I know some of the backers of $DOGE might disagree. If you’re an asset, you’ve been moving. From ’95 to ’00, you had an
2/ incredible wave while the internet was being built. What you have now is this incredible wave of digital transformation, particularly moving onto the cloud. I used to say 2-3 years ago in some interviews that we’re in the bottom of the 1st or 2nd inning in terms of digital
3/ transformation. And this is a 10-year runway. COVID jumped you from the bottom half of the 1st inning to the 6th inning. I think $SHOP CEO @tobi said we went from ’19 to ’30 in terms of e commerce sales in 1 year.
The biggest problem you have now is asset prices
4/ So if the problem is price: a lot of that has been wrung out. If you hold these names for 3-4 years, they could easily grow into their valuations.
If you held the names in ’00, a lot of these companies you still would have lost 90% of your value.
5/ On FAAMG- ” $AMZN at $3200 is not a bubble stock. Not whatsoever. It’s basically decent value. I don’t just mean AMZN, but a lot of the big FAAMG names.”
What could hit $5T first? #1 AMZN #2 $MSFT
$GOOGL could have a big pop, ironically, if the gov’t breaks them up because
6/ their core search business is literally the best business I’ve ever seen”
Biggest risk to the equity market? “Without a doubt: inflation strong enough that the Fed responds to it. This bubble has gone long enough & it’s extended enough that the minute they start tightening,
7/ the equity market should go down a lot. And our central case is that inflation occurs, but we’re open-minded to something like ‘07-’08 when you never really got to the inflation because the bubble popped. So, inflation never got to the manifestation stage.”
#2 is geopolitics
8/ “I’m worried about Taiwan. I think it’s probably not a worry until after the Beijing Winter Olympics in ’22. I don’t think Xi Jinping wants to deal w/ sanctions & boycotts. This is not some little thing where Yemen is fighting Saudi Arabia.
9/ If you were to get worried about the US & China, that could be an exogenous event that could get nasty. That’s our central case.”
On TA- “When it comes to investing, I like a multi-disciplinary approach. My 1st boss taught me technical analysis. So, I use fundamental
10/ analysis & technical analysis. If there are 1000s of securities out there & my portfolio is only going to have 15-20, I’m never going to buy something that doesn’t have a great chart and fundamentals.”
11/ On making concentrated bets the whole passage is worth a read:
12/ On figuring out what actually makes a stock go up or down: “
13/ On $BTC & how he changes his mind:
#1 CARES Act- When we did the CARES act & Powell started crossing all sorts of red lines in terms of what the Fed would do and wouldn’t do. The problem was Jay Powell & the world’s CB’s going nuts & making fiat money even more questionable
14/ #2- Paul Tudor Jones called & he said, “Do you know that when Bitcoin went from $17,000 to $3000 that 86% of the people that owned it at $17,000, never sold it?” Well, this was huge in my mind. So here’s something w/ a finite supply & 86% of the owners are religious zealots.
15/ I mean, who the hell holds something through $17,000 to $3000? And it turns out none of them — the 86% — sold it. Add that to this new Central Bank craziness phenomenon.
It goes up to $6,000 in the middle of the last spring. I got to buying some just because these kids on
16/ the West Coast are already worth more than I am, & they’re going to be making a lot more money than me in the future. For some reason, they’re looking at this thing the way I’ve always looked at gold, which is a store of value if I don’t trust fiat currencies. Then the thing
17/ that Paul told me. Then, the fact that it’s been around 13 years. It has become a brand, right? So it’s funny. I tried to buy $100M of $BTC at $6,200. It took me 2 weeks to buy $20M. I bought it all around $6,500, I think. So like an idiot, I stopped buying it.”
18/ On $ETH vs. $BTC- “I think $BTC has won the store of value game because it is: 1) a brand 2) it’s been around for 13-14 years & 3) It has a finite supply
Is it going to be gold? I don’t know. It’s sure as hell doing a good imitation of it the last year or two.
19/ On $ETH- “I’m a little more skeptical of whether it can hold its position. It reminds me a little of MySpace before $FB. Or maybe a better analogy is Yahoo before Google came along. Google wasn’t that much faster than Yahoo, but it didn’t need to be. All it needed to be was
20/ a little bit faster and the rest is history. One of the ways we’ve always invested in the private sector is to try and figure out where the engineering kids from Stanford, Brown and MIT are going. So many of them are in love with crypto and that’s where they’re going.
21/ I’m worried about the talent. That’s like 23-28 years old. Somebody — we don’t even know who they are yet — might come up with a smart contract platform that hasn’t even been invented yet.
As long as Jay Powell keeps acting like he’s been acting, I think gold & $BTC- &
22/ $BTC seems to be high-beta gold — are going to have the wind behind them.”