Crypto Winter by beeple

Interesting arguments about stuff people say in every bear market

I have no opinion on whether Bitcoin is entering a bear phase or not, but here are some things people say in every bear market, that have been proven wrong every time:

1: “It’s over forever. Bitcoin was a one-time bubble.”

lol ok, here’s the scoreboard – there are four 80% drawdowns in here:

2: “this time was different because the whole world was watching”

yeah, heard that after spring 2013 run, winter 2013, and 2017. 

3: Bitcoin fell because of [elon,china,treasury,regs,cme,whales,manipulation,etc]

This is a misunderstanding of the market. People always look for an explicit cause of a big move. Often market was just extended one way or another & virtually anything would’ve triggered the move. 

4: bitcoin believers lost faith

No, tourists lost faith. Happens every time. 90% of the new wave of people go away, but the remaining 10% really dig in, aren’t going anywhere, and set the floor for the next run.

5: bitcoin proved to be 100% speculative

No, it proved to be volatile while young – which is expected. It is a monetary superset of gold with a fraction of the market cap, that the whole world is in the process of learning about. That is not a recipe for a straight line.

6: bitcoin’s performance is terrible

Only if your time frame is short. Longer-term oriented people have been rewarded more (and faster) than for any other publicly-available asset in history

Again, the scoreboard (and yes this will show a red number or two deep in a bear):

7: no one will ever buy BTC again after this carnage

Well, what tends to happen is smart people see lower prices as an interesting potential entry, incentivizing them to do the work on getting up to speed on BTC. Then they become ardent supporters, & build the base for next wave 

8: government will now regulate it to death because popular opinion is so bad.

More shoe-horning of BTC into regulatory frameworks is inevitable, should’ve been in your model since day 1, and doesn’t change long-term outlook.

9: “I knew this would blow up”

This is cope from having missed the 1000s (or even millions) of % gains that long-term-minded bitcoiners have enjoyed 

10: “Bitcoin is dead”

haha, it’s died hundreds of times, while being up hundreds to millions of % from when almost all of the death proclamations were made. /end

Ignore the FUD, it’s the same tired arguments every single time. The best time to buy bitcoin is now.



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